Canada's parliamentary budget officer projects 0.9% growth in 2026

Canada's Parliamentary Budget Officer projects real GDP growth of 0.9 per cent in 2026 and 1.5 per cent in 2027, down from 1.1 per cent and 1.6 per cent in its June outlook, reflecting revised tariffs and trade conditions, according to its Economic and Fiscal Outlook published October 20. The PBO says the combined bilateral trade measures introduced since early 2025, if they remain permanent, could reduce the level of real GDP by about 1.4 per cent over the medium term, compared with 0.9 per cent estimated in June. It projects nominal GDP growth of 5.6 per cent in 2026 and 3.4 per cent in 2027, reflecting higher prices for oil and commodities, and a federal deficit of C$63.3 billion in 2026-27.